Amendment 3's $5 billion “loss” — against a $27 billion revenue surge since 2019
State economists priced Amendment 3 at nearly $5 billion in first-year local revenue reductions, rising to about $12 billion by the fifth year. But the “loss” is measured after a surge: collections jumped from $32 billion in 2019 to about $59 billion last year — up $27 billion — on the way past $80 billion. And every dollar of that “loss” is money the amendment lets people keep of their own.
- The Legislative Office of Economic and Demographic Research approved the estimates Friday: reductions of nearly $5 billion in fiscal 2027-28, then $8.8 billion, $9.7 billion and $10.75 billion, reaching nearly $12 billion in the fifth year.
- The amendment raises the homestead exemption from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, for non-school taxes only, and cuts the non-homestead assessment cap from 10 percent to 5 percent. It needs 60 percent of the vote on November 3.
- The reductions are measured against a baseline that is still growing: statewide property tax collections rose from $32 billion in 2019 to $59.2 billion in fiscal 2025-26, and are forecast to reach about $83 billion by the early 2030s under current law. In other words, the estimate books every dollar homeowners would keep of their own money as a loss to government.
- A new residency rule comes with it: to get the higher exemption, you must be a Florida resident as of December 31, 2026. Buyers who move here after that date wait five years.
The Legislative Office of Economic and Demographic Research approved the estimates Friday: if voters pass the property tax amendment on the November ballot, cities, counties and special districts will collect nearly $5 billion less in fiscal 2027-28 than they would under current law, $8.8 billion less the next year, then $9.7 billion and $10.75 billion, reaching nearly $12 billion less by the fifth year. In the official ledger, every one of those dollars is booked as revenue local governments lose — including the dollars that would simply stay in the pockets of the people who earned them.
The amendment raises the homestead exemption from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and then to $250,000 in 2028, with inflation adjustments after that. It applies to non-school taxes only — lawmakers carved school levies out of the measure Gov. Ron DeSantis' office drafted. A second piece lowers the cap on annual assessment increases for non-homestead property, including businesses, rentals, vacation homes and condos, from 10 percent to 5 percent. Homestead owners benefit first and most; non-homestead owners gain in later years. It needs 60 percent to pass.
The numbers that made the headlines, though, are only half the ledger. Whatever money government lets people keep of their own, the estimate counts as a loss. The economists' figures are reductions from a projected baseline, and that baseline has been climbing steeply. Statewide, local property tax collections rose from $32 billion in 2019 to $59.2 billion in fiscal 2025-26, according to Florida TaxWatch — up more than 60 percent since 2020 alone, with state officials telling legislative committees and the state's DOGE reviewers that growth ran from 60 percent to 160 percent depending on the county. Under current law, a forecast built on Department of Revenue data projects collections of about $83 billion by the early 2030s. Measured against that trajectory, the first-year $5 billion is roughly 8 percent of what local governments were projected to collect — and even after the fifth-year reduction, projected collections remain well above last year's $59 billion, and more than double the 2019 take.
The household side of the contrast is Sarasota County, where this fight is already underway. The average homeowner's property tax bill rose from just over $1,900 in fiscal 2020-21 to $3,011.64 in fiscal 2024-25, an increase of about 57 percent, while the county's total property tax collections rose about 64 percent, according to a Gigafact brief working from Herald-Tribune figures. Statewide, over the six years in which collections nearly doubled, inflation-adjusted median household income rose 7.51 percent — $72,480 to $77,920 — while consumer prices rose 26 percent. Sarasota County, anticipating the amendment, has already slowed hiring: it reported 162 vacancies on October 9 and a 31 percent year-over-year drop in September hiring, as we reported on October 15.
Supporters argue from the growth. “The proposal will increase constitutional protection against taxes for homestead properties and will be the biggest property tax cut in Florida history,” DeSantis posted on X this month, pointing to tax bills that have soared with home valuations over the last six years. Rep. Toby Overdorf, who chaired the House select committee on property taxes, puts it as a reset: local governments and schools went from imposing $45 billion in property taxes in 2022 to $59 billion in 2025, and “we've seen their budgets swell and swell and swell.” Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia accuses local governments of “resorting to scare tactics like threatening cuts to essential services.”
Local officials argue from the reduction. They warn the cuts will impair basic services, note that lawmakers' requirement that property taxes be spent on “core services” like public safety and infrastructure does not replace the missing money, and say small, rural counties whose tax bases are mostly homesteads are exposed worst. A study commissioned by the Florida League of Cities estimates a $250,000 exemption at an average 9.1 percent hit to municipal general funds. Former Republican state Sen. Jeff Brandes, a critic from the right, calls the measure “legislative malpractice” passed with “no data, no modeling, no scenario testing” — a charge the new state estimates only partly answer, since they were approved two weeks before early voting began.
One more fight is running underneath: an activist group and two former local officials have sued the state, alleging the ballot summary is misleading. Even if the courts agree, state law does not take the measure off the ballot — Attorney General James Uthmeier would be required to amend the summary. The question will be in front of voters either way, starting with the early voting already underway.